Car exporters have noticed a trend: by 2026, more and more are abandoning Russia and shifting their focus to Africa.
It’s not that Russia is no longer attractive; rather, the benefits of Africa are simply too substantial and too stable!
I. Russia: Profits Peaked, Barriers Soared, Profits Halved
Russia was once China’s largest export market for used cars, but now, with tightening policies, soaring costs, and escalating risks, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for small and medium-sized car dealers to make a profit.
Double pressure from scrap tax and certification: Scrap tax rates are as high as 70%-85%, and OTTC certification is lengthy and expensive (an additional $4,000 per vehicle), directly increasing costs by 20%-40%.
Mandatory localization requirements: A 3,200-point localization credit threshold excludes purely imported vehicles from the B2B market, and small and medium-sized car dealers lack the funds to build factories, making it impossible to operate.
Market saturation and severe infighting: Exports plummeted from 1.1 million vehicles in 2024 to 632,000 vehicles in 2025; large manufacturers are crowding the market, leading to fierce price wars and extremely low profit margins per vehicle.
Foreign exchange fluctuations and payment risks: The ruble’s unstable exchange rate and long payment cycles create significant financial pressure.
II. Africa: Zero tariffs + surging demand + low barriers to entry, the biggest blue ocean market in 2026
In contrast, Africa, with its zero-tariff policy implemented in May, booming population dividend, explosive demand for used cars, and relaxed market access, is a golden market tailor-made for Chinese car dealers!
Policy bombshell: Starting in May, many countries will implement zero tariffs, directly boosting profits by 30%+
Starting May 1st, major markets such as Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria will implement zero tariffs on imported used cars.
With no high scrap taxes and no stringent localization requirements, costs are drastically reduced, profits are maximized, and each car can earn $10,000-$20,000 more than in Russia.
Exploding demand: Essential demand in 40 countries, with used cars accounting for 95% of sales; cars are easy to sell.
Africa has a population of 1.4 billion, but only 40 cars per 1,000 people (compared to over 200 in China), leaving a shortage of over 50 million vehicles.
In West Africa (Nigeria) and East Africa (Kenya), used cars account for over 95% of the market, with a significant demand for 3-10 year old economy gasoline cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs.
Exports to Africa are projected to reach nearly 500,000 vehicles in 2025, a 67% year-on-year increase; after zero tariffs are implemented in 2026, exports are expected to exceed 800,000 vehicles, with no ceiling on growth.
Extremely low barriers to entry: Left-hand drive vehicles are universally applicable, vehicle age is flexible, and customs clearance is simple.
Left-hand drive vehicles are allowed entry directly without steering modification; domestic inventory of 3-8 year old vehicles is readily available.
Relaxed vehicle age restrictions: Most countries allow vehicles aged 8-15 years, and the massive domestic inventory can be absorbed.
Simplified customs clearance process: Zero tariffs result in faster customs clearance, shorter payment cycles, and easy operation for small and medium-sized car dealers.
Russia is already a red ocean market, with major manufacturers such as Chery, Haval, and Geely flocking to it; Africa is mainly a used car market, which major manufacturers disdain to cultivate, making it a goldmine exclusively for small and medium-sized car dealers.
III. 2026 Investment Strategy Conclusion: Russia – Stable but Less Profitable; Africa – High Profits + Long-Term Benefits
Russia: Suitable for large manufacturers with strong financial backing and localization capabilities; low profit margins and high risks for small and medium-sized car dealers.
Africa: Zero tariffs + explosive demand + low barriers to entry + high profits make it the top choice for small and medium-sized car dealers going global in 2026. Even beginners can quickly scale up and make a steady profit!
IV. Car Dealer Action Guide: Stock up now and seize the zero-tariff benefits in May
