I. Global Market Volatility and Geopolitical Impact
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has disrupted oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a tight global crude oil supply. On April 8th, the spot Brent crude oil price rose to $144.42 per barrel, a record high.
The surge in oil prices may increase global trade and transportation costs, putting pressure on the profits of export companies, especially energy-intensive industries.
The US has implemented focused inspections on Chinese industrial raw materials such as steel, copper, and lithium, as well as clothing and photovoltaic products, and has banned imports of some goods.
From January to February 2026, the total trade volume between China and the US decreased by 16.9% year-on-year, with Chinese exports to the US decreasing by 12.8%. However, China’s overall exports increased by 19.2%, indicating a significant trade diversion effect.
In January and February 2026, China’s exports to the EU increased by 19.9%, with exports to Germany, France, and Italy increasing by 28.3%, 28.9%, and 33.2%, respectively.
High-value-added products such as new energy vehicles and high-end home appliances are favored by the European market, driving the optimization of the export structure.
II. Adjustments to China’s Foreign Trade Policies and Market Layout
Cross-border E-commerce: The General Administration of Customs promoted a cross-customs-region return model to solve return difficulties and improve the convenience of cross-border e-commerce retail exports.
Export Tax Rebates: The Ministry of Finance canceled export tax rebates for 248 products, including photovoltaic and lithium batteries, and the tax rebate rate for battery products was reduced to zero over two years, forcing industrial upgrading.
Trade Facilitation: Customs revised the Enterprise Credit Management Measures, optimized credit ratings, established a fault-tolerance mechanism, and improved customs clearance efficiency.
ASEAN: In January-February 2026, China’s exports to ASEAN increased by 20.3%, with a total trade value of RMB 1.24 trillion, making ASEAN China’s largest trading partner.
Belt and Road Countries: China’s imports and exports with Belt and Road countries increased by 20.0%, and the market layout continued to optimize.
Emerging Markets: Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and other countries have become important export destinations for Chinese-made goods, with strong demand for textiles, apparel, and new energy products.
Qinghai Haixi Prefecture: In January-February 2026, the total value of foreign trade imports and exports increased by 24.8% year-on-year, with strong exports of specialty industries such as magnesium-based products and sodium carbonate.
Hainan Sanya City: In the first two months, foreign trade imports and exports increased by 49.6%, with the duty-free economy continuing to heat up, and offshore duty-free shopping revenue increasing by 28.3% year-on-year.
Yunnan: Policies to stabilize foreign trade have been introduced, focusing on areas such as international market expansion and export credit insurance, to promote the high-quality development of an open economy.
III. Industry Dynamics and Corporate Response Strategies
Integrated Circuits: Export value increased by 68.9% in January-February 2026, while export volume increased by 13.7%, demonstrating a significant price-driven effect.
Automobiles and Parts: Export volume and value increased by 57.9% and 63.1% respectively, with new energy vehicles becoming a new engine for exports.
High-Tech Products: Export value increased by 24.2%, demonstrating the effectiveness of China’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading.
Optimize Market Layout: Reduce reliance on a single market, deepen market penetration in ASEAN, the EU, and the Belt and Road Initiative markets, and expand into emerging markets.
Enhance Product Added Value: Increase R&D investment, promote industrial upgrading, and improve the competitiveness of export commodities.
Leverage Policy Dividends: Actively apply for AEO certification, RCEP tariff preferences, and other policies to reduce trade costs.
Strengthen Risk Management: Pay attention to geopolitical risks, build supply chain resilience, and cope with external shocks such as oil price fluctuations.
IV. Future Outlook
Short-term Challenges: Global geopolitical conflicts, rising trade protectionism, and high oil prices may disrupt foreign trade.
Long-term Opportunities: China’s strong foreign trade resilience, deepening market diversification strategy, and continuous industrial upgrading will provide solid support for stabilizing foreign trade.
Policy Guidance: It is expected that the government will continue to introduce policies to stabilize foreign trade, optimize the business environment, and promote high-quality development of foreign trade.
