On February 3, Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that for the second consecutive year, China’s auto exports surpassed Japan’s to become the world’s largest auto exporter.China’s auto exports in 2024 were 5.85 million units, up 19% from 2023, while Japan, which came in second, fell 5% to 4.21 million units, a move that further widened the leadingAdvantage.
Meanwhile, Japan’s domestic sales of new pure electric vehicles in 2024 amounted to 59,700 units, a decrease of 32.5% from the previous year, the first decline in four years.By way of comparison, foreign manufacturers imported 24,200 new pure electric vehicles in 2024, a 5.7% increase from the previous year and a record high for the sixth consecutive year.
Among them, BYD increased 53.7% to 2,223 units, surpassing Toyota’s 2,038 units for the first time.
Not surprisingly, the mindset of consumers is changing.
01.China’s Automobile “Overseas Song”
“Going out” and “going in” are never easy.
In December 2024, automobile exports were 504,000 units, up 2.9% sequentially and 1.1% year-on-year.Among them, 426,000 units of passenger cars were exported, up 1.6% sequentially and 1.1% year-on-year. For the whole year of 2024, 5,859,000 units of automobiles were exported, up 19.3% year-on-year.Among them, passenger cars exported 4.955 million units, up 19.7% year-on-year.
Conventional Fuel Vehicles: In December 2024, 371,000 units of conventional fuel vehicles were exported, down 8.8% sequentially and 4.3% year-on-year; for the whole year of 2024, 4,574,000 units of conventional fuel vehicles were exported, up 23.5% year-on-year.
New Energy Vehicles: In December 2024, 134,000 new energy vehicles were exported, up 60.7% sequentially and 19.8% year-on-year; for the whole year of 2024, 1,284,000 new energy vehicles were exported, up 6.7% year-on-year.
Vehicle enterprises: from the point of view of the growth rate, in 2024, among the top ten enterprises of vehicle exports, BYD exported 433,000 units, up 71.8% year-on-year, the growth rate ranked first among Chinese auto brands; Changan Automobile exported 536,000 units, up 49.6% year-on-year, becoming the second; JAC exported 249,000 units, up 46.7% year-on-year, ranked third.
All the way to the sea “outside the volume”, relying on what in the end?
First, demand has been strong.In recent years, the global new energy industry is still in a stage of rapid development, China’s exports of the “new three samples” and other green low-carbon products not only enriched the global supply, easing the pressure of global inflation, but also for the global response to climate change and the green transformation has made a great contribution to the electrification of the trend has become irreversible.
Secondly, supply has been optimized.China’s new energy automobile industry after years of development, BYD in technological innovation and competitiveness are relatively strong, the product range is also more and more rich, supply capacity continues to improve.When the supporting facilities for new energy vehicles continue to improve, the demand for cars is expected to continue to release.
However, there are both opportunities and challenges.
Taking the Japanese market as an example, the market share of Japanese automobile brands in the Japanese market is as high as 94%, with global TOP 10 car companies and a strong user base.Although Chinese auto brands have many advantages such as lower price, more intelligent, and whole industry chain integration, it is still not easy to enter the Japanese market.
In addition, the total volume of local car exports and cars produced in overseas bases by Japanese car companies has exceeded 20 million units, but the share of overseas localized production by Chinese car companies is still very small.
“Get in, stay in, and grow.”
Looking ahead to 2025, China’s automobile market is expected to continue to maintain stable growth.A number of organizations predict that China’s auto sales in 2025 will reach about 32.9 million units.With the further popularization of new energy technologies, the continuous expansion of the auto export market and the strengthening of policy support, China’s auto industry will usher in a broader space for development.
02.Japan’s Automobile “Decline Song”
Out of the Chinese car, is turning into a Japanese car hanging over the head of the sword of Damocles.In Thailand, China’s auto sales rose against the trend, while Japanese car companies in July this year, sales have hit a double-digit decline; in South America, the Middle East and other Japanese cars strong area, BYD Brazilian executives even threatened to “2 years to the sales list of the fifth”……Out of the Chinese car, is turning into a Japanese car hanging over the head of the sword of Damocles.In Thailand, China’s auto sales rose against the trend, while Japanese car companies in July this year, sales have hit a double-digit decline; in South America, the Middle East and other Japanese cars strong area, BYD Brazilian executives even threatened to “2 years to the sales list of the fifth”……
According to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), Japan’s automobile exports fell for the first time in 2 years in 2024, with passenger cars, which accounted for 90% of total exports, dropping 4% to 3.81 million units.Exports to North America, Japan’s largest export destination, fell 7% to 1.6 million units.Since 2008, Japan’s automobile exports have not exceeded 5 million units.
Why is the once-powerful Japanese brand collapsing?
On the one hand, Chinese car companies are taking their share.
In the Chinese market, the market share of Japanese brands in the last three years was 22.6%, 20.0%, and 17.0%, respectively, with a shrinking market share.2023 Since 2023, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan’s sales in China have declined by 1.7%, 10.1%, and 16.1%, respectively.2024 Toyota had the largest sales volume in China in 2024, with 1,776,000 units, a 6.9% decline in sales, and Honda’s sales declined by 30.9% compared to theprevious year, plunging 30.9% to 852,000 units, while Nissan’s sales in China were about 696,000 units, down 12.2%.
On the other hand, Japanese car companies are lagging behind.
First of all, Japan’s expensive electricity prices, key raw materials are completely dependent on imports, not enough to support the Japanese car companies to fully transform the pure electric field.As a result, the Japanese automobile enterprises product promotion speed is too slow, the shift in the concept of consumer car purchase accelerated the pace of fast-paced iteration of the market.This shift, so that the Japanese brands accustomed to conservative and stable some caught off guard.
Secondly, Japanese car companies are seriously lacking in intelligence.Neither advanced smart driving technology nor a strong Internet ecosystem.Panasonic is the only battery company, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan rely on BYD’s blade batteries for battery supply and smart solutions, as well as Huawei’s smart cockpit, and Magic Menta’s Smart Driving system.
In this context, the Japanese car companies “group warming”.
In December 2024, Honda Motor and Nissan Motor signed a Memorandum of Understanding announcing the official start of merger talks.Over the next six months, the two companies will discuss merging into one holding company, with a final agreement expected to be signed in June 2025 and the merger finalized in August 2026.Mitsubishi Motors will also consider the possibility of joining the merger, with a decision to be made by the end of January 2025.
After this merger, the new holding company will become the world’s third-largest automaker by sales volume, with overall annual sales targeting more than 30 trillion yen/year (about 1.4 trillion yuan), operating profit targeting more than 3 trillion yen/year (about 139.85 billion yuan), and the company’s annual sales volume coming in at more than 8 million vehicles.
In the view of industry insiders, not only Japanese car companies, traditional car companies in the German and American giants are facing the “elephant big difficult to turn” electrification, intelligent predicament.Just when these traditional giants are hesitant, but also gives China’s traditional car enterprises transformation and the rise of new forces brand opportunities.
Article source: cgi.automotive.com
[Disclaimer] The article is the author’s independent point of view, does not represent the position of Zhonggong Automobile Network, only for learning and communication.
