Japanese automakers, which had held the top spot for over 20 years, have fallen to second place.
China’s global auto sales are projected to increase by 17% year-on-year in 2025, reaching approximately 27 million units.
Japanese automakers’ combined sales are estimated at around 25 million units.
Meanwhile, signs of oversupply in China are intensifying…
Looking at new car sales in 2025, Chinese automakers will rank first globally for the first time, while Japanese automakers, which had held the top spot for over 20 years, will fall to second place.
China has already become the world’s leading car exporter, solidifying its status as a major automotive nation.
To counter the price-competitive Chinese companies, countries will erect barriers in terms of tariffs and new standards.
Global friction is intensifying, and protectionism aimed at protecting domestic companies is likely to strengthen.
The Nikkei compiled statistics based on data released by companies from January to November 2025 and data from S&P Global Mobility.
Sales figures include commercial vehicles. This includes sales in the domestic market and overseas markets such as exports.
Country classification is based on the proportion of ownership; in cases where each party owns 50%, the country of origin of the manufacturer listed under the brand name at the time of sale is used.
China’s global auto sales are projected to grow by 17% year-on-year, reaching approximately 27 million units.
China became the world’s largest auto exporter for the first time in 2023. Overall sales are also expected to surpass China’s position as the world’s largest automaker by 2025.
In China, where automakers account for approximately 70% of total car sales, the government has implemented policies to support the widespread adoption of pure electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHVs). As a result, new energy vehicles now account for nearly 60% of passenger car sales.
Japanese automakers’ combined sales reached approximately 25 million units, flat compared to the previous year, losing their top position. Previously, global car sales were dominated by competition between the US and Japan. At its peak in 2018, Japanese sales reached nearly 30 million units. The lead over Chinese automakers, projected at approximately 8 million units in 2022, has vanished, having been overtaken in just three years.
On the other hand, signs of oversupply in China are increasing, with the largest automaker, BYD, beginning to lower prices, intensifying price competition. Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that from January to November, sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the 100,000-150,000 yuan price range were the most prevalent, accounting for 23% of the total.
Chinese automakers are turning to exports as a way out. The increasing sale of surplus domestically produced EVs to overseas markets has been interpreted by some as “deflationary exports.”
In ASEAN countries, where Japanese cars hold a dominant position, Chinese car sales have surged 49% to approximately 500,000 units. Toyota’s Thai subsidiary stated that as of November, Japanese cars accounted for 69% of new car sales in Thailand, a sharp decline from approximately 90% five years ago.
BYD showcased its PHV at the auto show (November 2025, Guangzhou).
In Europe, Chinese car sales are projected to grow by 7% to approximately 2.3 million units. While the EU has imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, the export share of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs) outside of these tariffs is rapidly increasing. Sales in Africa are expected to grow by 32% to 230,000 units, and in Central and South America by 33% to 540,000 units. Chinese car sales are also steadily expanding in emerging market countries.
The trend of countries protecting their domestic companies by introducing tariffs and new standards is intensifying.
The US and Canada have imposed tariffs exceeding 100% on Chinese EVs. The EU has also imposed tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese EVs. Furthermore, it has established standards for small EVs, relaxing technical requirements compared to regular EVs, to encourage European companies to produce within the region, further strengthening its control.
