According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China’s total automobile exports reached 6.343 million units in the first 11 months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. It is projected that total annual automobile exports will reach 7 million units. This would be a new record for automobile exports from a single country worldwide.
Previously, the record for the highest number of automobile exports from a single country was held by Japan. In 2008, Japan exported 6.277 million automobiles to the global market. Starting in 2009, Japanese automobile exports gradually declined. Over the 16 years leading up to 2024, Japanese car exports totaled 70.5 million units, an average of 4.4 million units per year, nearly 1.88 million units less than the peak.
Now that China’s automobile exports have reached this level, the only comparable benchmark is Japanese automakers. By analyzing Japanese car export data, we can deduce the export potential of Chinese automakers.
The largest market for Japanese car exports is North America, primarily the United States and Canada. Over the past 26 years, Japanese automakers exported 47.39 million vehicles, accounting for 39% of their total exports. Of these, an average of 1.64 million vehicles were exported to the United States annually, representing 90% of their total exports to North America. The US is the lifeline of Japanese automakers’ overseas operations and their primary source of profit.
Currently, Chinese automakers have not yet opened export channels to the US and Canada. Their access to smaller markets like Puerto Rico is also very limited. This is the biggest difference between Chinese automakers and their Korean and Japanese counterparts in terms of exports. Their priorities are exactly opposite. Among the 249 countries and regions globally, Chinese automakers have the lowest probability of directly entering the US market.
The limit for Chinese automakers in the North American suburbs is Mexico. Mexico’s proposed tariffs on Chinese automobiles and auto parts will officially take effect on January 1, 2026. Chinese automakers’ exports to Mexico will gradually decline. Russia will continue to be a key export destination for Chinese automakers.
Europe is the second largest market for Japanese car exports. Over the past 26 years, a total of 24.78 million vehicles have been exported, accounting for 20% of total exports. The average annual export volume is 950,000 vehicles. Coincidentally, 2008 also saw a peak in Japanese car exports to Europe. Since 2009, Japanese car exports have never exceeded 1 million vehicles. In 2021, exports even fell below 600,000 vehicles, before rebounding to 660,000 vehicles in 2024.
Europe, with its sales volume of 15 million vehicles, is the primary target for Chinese car exports. The EU’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles will not have a fundamental impact on Chinese car exports. The cost advantage of Chinese automakers can completely offset the impact of tariffs. Moreover, the largest export volumes for Chinese automakers are gasoline-powered vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
China and the EU are restarting tariff negotiations on electric vehicles, adopting a method of setting a minimum price for Chinese electric vehicles instead of the current tariff measures. This is similar to the automotive trade game between the US and Japan. The advantages of Japanese cars cannot be eliminated by administrative means. The competitiveness of Chinese automakers in the electric vehicle supply chain is a factor that EU and European automakers cannot ignore.
In my statistics on registered sales in 27 European countries, Chinese passenger car sales exceeded 600,000 units in the first 10 months of this year. If light vehicles are included, Chinese car sales in Europe this year would reach 750,000 units. The European market for Chinese automakers is the US market for Japanese automakers.
In Oceania, Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia (mainly ASEAN), where Japanese automakers export 400,000 to 600,000 units, Chinese automakers are advancing even faster. These markets are less affected by policy changes, and Chinese automakers’ exports have already established a significant presence. The average market share of Chinese automakers is between 15% and 35%, and it is still increasing. After updating the November sales data for various countries, I will analyze the performance of Chinese automakers in detail.
7 million units will not be the limit for Chinese car exports; there is still room for growth. The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association reminds its member companies in its annual reports that Japanese automakers are exporting not only cars, but also credit. This also applies to Chinese automakers.
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