Starting in April, the largest adjustment to the export tax rebate policy in recent years officially took effect.
In January of this year, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement clarifying that from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products would be officially cancelled.
The tax rebate for battery products will be adjusted in two phases: from April 1 to December 31, 2026, the rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely cancelled from January 1, 2027.
Based on this, many foreign trade enterprises are facing a systemic restructuring of their cost and pricing logic. The photovoltaic industry chain is most directly impacted by this round of policy adjustments.
The introduction of this policy is deeply related to the long-standing “internal competition” predicament in the photovoltaic industry. Some photovoltaic companies have been trapped in vicious price wars for years, with extremely limited profit margins.
Data shows that from January to October 2025, exports of silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules increased by 8.3%, 91.4%, and 6% year-on-year, respectively, while the total export value decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, presenting a paradox of “increased volume but decreased price” in exports. Following the implementation of the new tax rebate policy, leading companies reacted extremely quickly.
For products shipped after April, major Chinese photovoltaic panel manufacturers have raised their sales prices to Japan, with the highest increase reaching 30%. Jinko Solar, the world’s largest producer, LONGi Green Energy Technology, ranked second, Trina Solar, ranked fourth, and Canadian Solar, ranked seventh and mainly producing in China, are all among those raising prices. According to calculations by Shanghai Metals Market, taking 210R modules as an example, the elimination of VAT export tax rebates is equivalent to a reduction of 46 to 51 yuan in profit per exported module.
Industry insiders generally believe that this adjustment is an important signal that the photovoltaic industry is shifting from policy-driven to market-based competition. This move will cause short-term cost pains, but in the long run, it will accelerate industry consolidation, driving the photovoltaic industry from scale expansion and price competition to innovation-driven and high-quality development. Small and medium-sized manufacturers lacking core competitiveness will face severe survival challenges, thus potentially leading to further increases in industry concentration.
Methanol products are also included in the list of products for which export tax rebates are being cancelled, attracting considerable market attention. However, some analysts point out that China’s annual methanol exports range from 150,000 to 400,000 tons. Given China’s current annual methanol production capacity of over 100 million tons, exports account for a negligible proportion. Therefore, the cancellation of export tax rebates will have little overall impact on the methanol industry.
It is important to note that the methanol included in the appendix does not distinguish between “gray” and “green” methanol; green methanol is also included. This means that the 13% VAT rebate for all products declared for export as methanol will be directly cancelled. Currently, the production cost of green methanol in China is much higher than that of traditional methanol, and the market is heavily reliant on the international market.
The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase the export cost of green methanol and reduce its price competitiveness in the international market. For projects originally planned for export, especially those targeting the international shipping fuel market, the business model definitely needs to be reconsidered.
The requirements for green methanol production enterprises have been further raised, bringing considerable challenges. The building materials industry is also one of the key sectors affected by the cancellation of tax rebates.
The policy explicitly cancels the export VAT rebate for traditional building materials such as cement products, architectural glass, ceramic tiles, sanitary ceramics, stone materials, and gypsum board. This involves the entire industrial chain of stone processing products, precast cement components, and various architectural glass and ceramic products, directly increasing the export costs of related products by 3% to 5%, forcing traditional building materials enterprises to accelerate their transformation.
However, it was observed that green high-end categories such as light steel villas and prefabricated buildings were not included in the cancellation list, but instead continued to enjoy preferential policies such as immediate VAT refunds and priority customs clearance, becoming the core beneficiaries of the policy dividends.
In addition, e-cigarette products are also included in the scope of this tax rebate cancellation. From April 1, 2026, the 13% export VAT rebate for e-cigarette products will be officially cancelled.
The impact of this policy on the e-cigarette industry chain should not be underestimated. Manufacturers are facing multiple pressures, including price increases, order restructuring, and capacity reduction.
Export-oriented factories with low profit margins and a focus on price competition will be the first to be affected. Their profit margins are already in the 5%–10% range; the cancellation of tax rebates is tantamount to wiping out their main source of profit, potentially leading to the rapid elimination of small and medium-sized factories.
Meanwhile, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration recently proposed implementing total volume management, capacity verification, and production scale control for e-cigarette manufacturers to further promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand.
Under the dual pressures of stricter regulations and the cancellation of tax rebates, the e-cigarette industry is transitioning from a “policy buffer” to a “no-buffer competition” phase, with orders rapidly concentrating on leading compliant companies with scale, technology, and brand advantages.
Overall, this round of export tax rebate policy adjustments has a wide scope and high industry chain relevance, forcing companies to shift from “price competition” to “capability competition,” which aligns with the objective law of the industry’s transformation from policy support to market competition.
