Is China's automobile exports inseparable from the Russian market?
Is China's automobile exports inseparable from the Russian market?

Is China’s automobile exports inseparable from the Russian market?

2026-02-24
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In 2025, among the top 10 countries to which China exports automobiles, Russia will see its exports halved year-on-year, yet it will still rank first.

In 2025, China’s passenger vehicle exports reached a new historical high, with total exports exceeding 6 million units.

While the good news of “Chinese cars going global” is frequently reported, many people may only know that Chinese cars are selling well, but they may not be clear about which corners of the world these models have reached, which markets have become the core battlegrounds for Chinese automakers’ overseas expansion, and which markets are brewing new growth potential.

Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the General Administration of Customs shows that in 2025, the top ten destinations for China’s passenger vehicle exports have been officially released. Among them are traditional partners that have consistently ranked high, as well as rapidly growing emerging markets; some markets saw year-on-year declines, while others showed the potential to double their exports.

The list shows that in 2025, the top ten destinations for Chinese passenger vehicle exports were: Russia, the UAE, Mexico, the UK, Brazil, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Iran.

The top three destinations accounted for a combined export volume of 1.5859 million vehicles, representing half of the total exports from the top ten.

However, the performance and survival strategies of these three markets differed significantly.

Firstly, Russia, which had consistently ranked first in Chinese passenger vehicle exports, retained its top position in 2025 with 555,400 vehicles exported. However, a significant year-on-year decline of 46.1% indicates the end of the high-growth myth for Chinese automakers in Russia.

Looking back two or three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to the collective withdrawal of European and American automakers from the Russian market. Chinese automakers quickly filled the market gap, achieving explosive growth in exports. Russia became China’s largest passenger vehicle export market, with Chinese passenger vehicle exports to Russia reaching a record high in 2024.

However, entering 2025, multiple factors combined led to a significant decline in exports.

On the one hand, Russia successively introduced policy adjustments, raising the scrap tax on imported vehicles by 70%-85% in October 2024, and further increasing import tariffs to 20%-38% in January 2025. Coupled with increased customs clearance costs, this significantly weakened the price advantage of Chinese cars, pushing up final selling prices. On the other hand, the Russian government strongly supported domestic automakers, promoting localized production through differentiated subsidy policies. Domestic brands showed strong recovery momentum, further squeezing the market space for imported cars.

It is worth noting that despite the decline in exports, Chinese brands still maintained a market share of over 50% in Russia. Brands such as Haval, Chery, and Geely remained among the top sellers in the Russian market. However, their survival model has shifted from growth to existing market share. In the future, localized production will be key for Chinese automakers to maintain their position in the Russian market.

In stark contrast to Russia’s decline, the UAE jumped to second place in China’s passenger car exports with 539,700 vehicles exported, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.3%, becoming the “biggest dark horse” for Chinese automakers going global in 2025.

Today, in the UAE market, where luxury cars abound, Chinese vehicles have long since shed their “cost-effectiveness” label, achieving a remarkable transformation from value-for-money to high-end.

Chinese models such as the Baojun Yueye Plus and BYD Yangwang U8L are competing alongside Lamborghinis and Ferraris. The Baojun Yueye Plus, priced at around 70,000 RMB in China, is priced as high as 160,000 RMB in Dubai; the BYD Yangwang U8L has become a new favorite among Dubai’s wealthy.

Mexico, ranking third, saw Chinese passenger car exports reach 490,800 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, making it a core market for Chinese passenger cars in the Americas.

Data shows that in 2025, nearly 20% of light vehicles sold in Mexico were made in China, meaning one in every five new cars was from China. Five years ago, Chinese brands accounted for less than 1% of the Mexican market, representing a significant leap forward.

Besides the top three destinations, the fourth to tenth ranked destinations also saw breakthroughs in European markets and strong performance in emerging markets.

Among them, exports to the UK reached 320,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 70.3%; Brazil, as South America’s largest auto market, saw nearly 300,000 passenger vehicles exported from China in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%; Belgium’s exports reached 289,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Kazakhstan also continued to see varying degrees of growth.

However, Iran, a traditional market for Chinese passenger vehicle exports, saw exports reach 164,100 units in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 31.6%.

Overall, the list of Chinese passenger vehicle export destinations in 2025 clearly shows that the core highlight of Chinese passenger vehicle exports lies in the growth of new energy vehicles, achieving a dual boom in both the European and emerging markets.

In terms of performance, the export growth momentum of new energy vehicles far exceeds that of traditional fuel vehicles. In the European market, Belgium and the UK have become the core battlegrounds for Chinese new energy vehicles. In 2025, exports of Chinese new energy vehicles to the UK and Belgium both increased by over 80% year-on-year, far exceeding the overall export growth rate.

In summary, China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025 will show a “steady but adjusted” trend, remaining the foundation for Chinese automakers’ overseas expansion. This will primarily support existing demand in traditional markets such as Russia and Iran, with export volume remaining relatively stable, although the growth rate will gradually slow. New energy vehicles will become a new growth driver, achieving growth in European and emerging markets.

Looking ahead, as Chinese automakers continue to deepen their globalization strategy, localized production, localized R&D, and localized marketing will become the mainstream trend. The competitiveness of Chinese cars going global will shift from “price advantage” to “technological advantage” and “brand advantage.”

It is believed that in the near future, Chinese passenger vehicles will further expand their global market share and further reshape the global automotive industry landscape.

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