Will China's car exports reach 7 million units by 2025, triggering a global market reshuffle?
Will China's car exports reach 7 million units by 2025, triggering a global market reshuffle?

Will China’s car exports reach 7 million units by 2025, triggering a global market reshuffle?

2026-01-19
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Recently, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data showing that my country’s automobile exports exceeded 7 million units for the first time, reaching 7.098 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%.

This final result not only significantly exceeded the industry’s cautious expectations at the beginning of the year regarding a slowdown in growth, but also signifies that the globalization process of China’s automobile industry has entered a new stage.

If the past was the 1.0 era of “product trade,” then by 2025, China’s automotive exports had fully entered the 2.0 era of “ecosystem integration,” a period of in-depth development.

While the simple export model of complete vehicles continues, the proportion of deeper localization models is steadily increasing.

On the one hand, leading automakers are accelerating the construction of production bases and R&D centers overseas, particularly in Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America. For example, BYD has established its European headquarters and R&D center in Hungary and built production bases in Brazil and Thailand; Chery already has 10 overseas factories worldwide; and SAIC Motor has launched its “Glocal” strategy, emphasizing the integration of global and local operations. This localization of production helps circumvent trade barriers and better meet market demands.

On the other hand, the entire industry chain, centered on batteries, chips, and intelligent driving solutions, is also collaboratively expanding overseas, extending the competitive dimension from vehicle manufacturing to technical standards and supply chain systems.

Meanwhile, market trends are also shifting rapidly.

In the past, Chinese brands’ exports often heavily relied on a single overseas market, but this phenomenon gradually weakened last year.

Taking the Russian market as an example, once a cornerstone of Chinese automobile exports, China’s exports to Russia declined sharply year-on-year in 2025, while exports to Mexico surged ahead.

In addition, the Middle East market emerged as a dark horse, becoming the biggest highlight of the year.

Countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with their strong purchasing power and high acceptance of new energy and intelligent products, have become top destinations for Chinese automobile exports.

Meanwhile, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Australia/New Zealand markets also continued to grow, while the European market, represented by Belgium and the UK, remains a core region for China’s new energy vehicle exports.

A profound reshuffling is quietly taking place within the brand landscape.

Chery, leveraging its strong overseas presence, continues to hold the top spot in export volume, with 1.344 million vehicles exported in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%. SAIC Motor, a long-time pioneer in Chinese automakers’ overseas expansion, achieved overseas sales of 1.071 million vehicles in 2025, bringing its cumulative overseas sales to over 6 million units. The biggest variable, however, comes from BYD, whose cumulative overseas sales of passenger vehicles and pickup trucks exceeded 1.0496 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 145%.

Meanwhile, from Geely and Great Wall to NIO and XPeng, mainstream and emerging brands have formed a well-defined and distinctive overseas export contingent, changing the previously fragmented and homogeneous competitive landscape.

Equally noteworthy is the significant change in the main export players in 2025. Previously, individual Chinese brands were the main drivers of overseas expansion. Data from 2025 confirms that joint ventures’ export business performed “well,” becoming a new growth engine.

For example, the export volumes of brands such as Hyundai, Volvo, and Ford all more than doubled year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, an increasing number of joint venture automakers regard China as an important base for their global production capacity layout and product development, leveraging China’s manufacturing and supply chain advantages to produce models for resale overseas or supply the global market.

Looking ahead to 2026, standing at the new starting point of over 7 million annual exports, further expansion of scale is no longer the core issue; value enhancement and model consolidation are key. The next decisive advantage for China’s auto exports lies in the race for intelligent technology.

Once electrification solves the transformation of power sources, intelligent technology will redefine the automotive experience and value. The future global landscape will test how the Chinese auto industry can transform its scale advantage into an irreplaceable value advantage. What changes will the global automotive market landscape undergo? It’s something to look forward to!

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